ICPAC Climate Outlook Forum
(Kampala, Uganda) : The Climate Centre of the Greater Horn of Africa said that above normal rainfalls likely to risk public health, agriculture and infrastructures in the March to May rainfall season in the region.
The Intergovernmental Authority on Development’s (IGAD) Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) announced that despite the wetter than normal conditions could contribute to good soil moisture which is in turn favorable for agricultural activities, it is predicted that the heavy rains are likely to negatively affect public health, agriculture and infrastructures.
Impacts On Agriculture and Food Security
Presenting the regional report on the impact scenario of heavy rains at the 66th Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF66) of ICPAC on Wednesday, Crop Development Director with the Ethiopian Ministry of Agriculture and who is also a review scientist for the GHACOF Mr. Esayas Lemma indicated that there is a possibility of flood and soil erosion incidences that could negatively affect croplands and productivity.
According to Mr. Esayas, the wetter than normal conditions would probably result in flooding and soil erosion especially in areas that have poor land management and practices in most parts of the Greater Horn of Africa.
Excessive soil moistures due to heavy rains are expected to cause crop damage particularly on tuber and root crops, he indicated.
Mr. Esayas further pointed out that the enhanced rains and warmer than average temperatures would lead most parts of the region to experience leaching of soil nutrients, prevalence of crop pests and diseases, risk of locust swarms and quelea birds as well as other other pests and diseases.
“There are likelihood of post harvest losses for irrigated crops specially irrigated wheat, high rate of weeds growth that may ultimately increase the cost of farm management,” he added.
The above normal rains also possibly will cut roads disrupting distribution of food/food aid, inaccessibility to farms and produce markets especially in Djibouti, Kenya and Somalia, he added.
Impacts Of Above Normal Rainfall and Temperature on Health
Paulino O. Omay, health and climate expert, who briefed participants of GHACOF66 last week in Kampala, Uganda, on his part indicated that the above normal rains are also expected to have impacts of disease outbreaks especially related to water born, internal parasites and Transboundary Animal Diseases (TADs).
He also underscores that apart from human health problems including Rift Valley Fever (RVF), livestock deaths due to flash floods are probably to affect the region.
On the other hand, drier than normal conditions could trigger other health problems such as malaria, yellow fever, dysenteries, under-nutrition and mal nutrition especially among children, the expert said.
As to the expert, the situations would also result in the prevalence of various crop diseases and pests due to the enhanced rains and warmer than average temperature.
Impact on Water Resources and Energy
Dr. Khalid Hassaballah, a hydrologist at ICPAC, says that as the wetter than normal conditions expected over most parts of the region and highest probabilities indicated in central to western Kenya and in cross border areas of Ethiopia, Kenya, and Uganda, the circumstances may trigger risks of flash and river flooding and enhanced water availability in the Juba, Shebelle, Dawa and Ogaden downstream areas.
Though the rains would have positive impacts of increased surface water availability and groundwater recharge, water pollutions are likely to happen in the Athi, Ewaso Ngiro , Nugal, and Tana water streams, Dr. Khalid pointed out.
He also considers the risks of flooding and destruction of infrastructure especially around Lake Tanganyika and Rusizi in Burundi.
The enhanced water availability may also result in risks of flooding, displacement of people, risks of soil erosion and land slide, water pollution and risks of floating vegetation causing blockages Lake Victoria in the Rift Rift Valley Lake basins of the Greater Horn of Africa, the hydrologist predicted.
Responses For Negative Impacts
Apart from giving the predictions on possible impacts of the above normal weather conditions, experts at the GHACOF66 , recommended workable responses including early dissemination of weather information to the public through giving due attention in the selection of the crop and seed types for farming activities in the rainfall season.
The experts also underscore that governments in the region need to support farmers with the supply of appropriate technologies, subsidized fertiliser and seeds, while they encouraged farmers to seek professional advises from government authorities, ministries and extension officers.
Rehabilitation of soil erosion control structures with tree planting and building ditches on contour lines, progressive and radical terraces, Construction of gabions are the other disaster management responses suggested by the experts.
As peace is a prerequisite for e disaster management they urged the conflicting parties in Sudan to end the fight to enable farmers resume their farming and pastoral activities. They also underscored the need for hhumanitarian support for disaster-prone and food insecure communities.
Providing effective early warning information and regular updating on cyclone development, coordinating with Disaster Risk Management (DRM) efforts and encouraging water harvesting measures and implementing integrated water resources management among farmers are also highly advised by experts present at GHACOF66.
It is to be recalled that heavy rainfall linked to the El Niño weather pattern, struck the Greater Horn of Africa region as it was emerging from the worst drought in 40 years that drove millions into hunger last year.