Sudan Civil War
Since the launching of the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt have been holding tripartite negotiations on the Guidelines and Rules for the filling of the dam and for its annual operation dam.
However, experts say that with the current full-scale war in Sudan the conflict derails the negotiations over the dam on the Nile.
This week, Al Jazeera writes that the civil war at home could leave Khartoum too busy to take part in any talks.
Sudan is Now Stands by Ethiopia‘s Side
On the contrary, it seems that the negotiation on the GERD for Sudan is not a big problem as it would also benefit from this Africa’s biggest hydroelectric projert. “In January, Sudan’s de facto leader, Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, told Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed in the Sudanese capital, Khartoum, that the two countries were “aligned and in agreement on all issues regarding the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam,” Al Jazeera pointed out.
“Ethiopia’s neighbor Sudan, which draws two-thirds of its water supplies from the Nile and regularly suffers from massive flooding during the rainy season, had first criticized the project from the start. Now, however, it seems to have changed its view amid hopes that the dam will help to regulate the annual floods.”
Egypt Is Still Far From Reality On the Ground
According to media reports, Egypt, which was also an early critic of the project, has not changed its mind, maintaining that the dam on the Blue Nile, the River Nile’s main tributary, will jeopardize its water supply.
Around 97% of Egypt’s population of 106 million people live along the River Nile and depend on it as a source of fresh water and the river has always been considered Egypt’s lifeline.
The Dam Is Critical For Ethiopia and Nearing Completion
Addis Ababa says the project is essential for Ethiopia’s development, but the governments in Cairo and Khartoum fear it could restrict their citizens’ water access.
The dam is an essential source of water and electricity for most countries in the region. The Nile Basin river system flows through 11 countries. The Blue Nile and the White Nile merge in Sudan before flowing into Egypt towards the Mediterranean Sea.
The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, or GERD, has been dogged by controversy ever since construction started on the $4 billion (€3.6 billion) mega project in 2011.
For Ethiopia, the dam will make a huge difference. The government expects it will generate up to 6,500 megawatts of electricity, doubling the annual national electricity output. This will enable the 60% of the population that is not yet connected to the grid to gain access to reliable power
Now, 12 years on, Ethiopia’s Office of National Coordination has announced that the hydroelectric power dam has been 90% completed.
The Dam and The Region
Tobias Zumbrägel, a researcher focused on the impact of climate change on the Middle East at Germany’s University of Heidelberg, recently told reporters : “The dam project in Ethiopia is an illustrative example of the extent to which national modernization projects and environmental dependencies are simultaneously reinforced by the constant threat of climate change,”
“We are longer just talking about a water problem, which is a major problem in itself, but we are also talking about the fact that an entire region is actually under threat of becoming more destabilized,” he added.
For example, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf countries have reiterated their willingness to back Egypt in demanding sufficient water supply from Ethiopia.
Egypt, however, has repeatedly accused Israel of working against its interests when it comes to the GERD, despite the otherwise solid bilateral relations betwen the two countries, which signed a peace agreement in 1979. Israel and Ethiopia also have close diplomatic ties.
Science Has Solutions For The Debate
Researchers point out that there are political and scientific ways to settle the situation. “Egypt’s and Sudan’s most pragmatic, cost-effective and peaceful option is to set up a data-sharing agreement with Ethiopia to manage the water flows from the dam,” Jemima Oakey told DW. Such an agreement could include guaranteed water releases during times of drought. “It would build trust, promote cooperation and allow for sustainable and careful multilateral management of the Nile’s flows,” she said.
However, since construction started in 2011, Ethiopia has repeatedly rejected such options, as well other forms of political agreements.
Hagen Koch, a senior scientist at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, in his turn, pins his hopes on a scientific approach. “Great benefits could be derived if Egypt’s Aswan High Dam and Ethiopia’s GERD were operated together,” he told DW.
“The GERD is located in the highlands; the Aswan High Dam is on a much lower altitude where temperatures are higher,” he told DW, adding that Aswan’s water reservoir Lake Nasser is also four times larger than the reservoir of the GERD.
“If you manage this sensibly and store more water in the GERD than in Lake Nasser, you will have lower evaporation losses, and thus both countries would have more water available for their respective hydropower generation.”
It remains to be seen whether by the time of the dam’s completion in 2024 or 2025 — depending on the amount of rainfall during the rainy season — any agreement will be reached.